Clutch Pickers

Updated 1st January 2014 (2013 regular season final standings)

'Clutch' games are those games between 50-74% expert confidence rating (found at the bottom of weekly pick pages). These are usually the hardest matchups to predict. Anyone can take a 10-0 team to beat a 1-9 team, but who do you take when both teams are 5-5? That's where clutch picking comes in. This rates the experts Pickwatch tracks based on their success rate in those games that are hardest to predict.

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Number of Games 50-74% 6 5 6 7 6 6 3 3 5 4 4 6 5 6 1 5 4
Rank Expert Affiliation Close Game Win % WK1 WK2 WK3 WK4 WK5 WK6 WK7 WK8 WK9 WK10 WK11 WK12 WK13 WK14 WK15 WK16 WK17
1 Gregg Rosenthal NFL 60.98% 50% 80% 50% 50% 50% 100% 33% 33% 33% 40% 50% 100% 60% 50% 0% 100% 50%
2 Joel Beall FOX 59.76% 83% 40% 83% 63% 50% 71% 33% 67% 100% 60% 25% 67% 20% 17% 0% 100% 75%
3 Prediction Machine CBS 58.54% 67% 60% 67% 38% 33% 71% 67% 33% 100% 40% 100% 17% 60% 67% 0% 60% 100%
4 Khaled Elsayed ProFootballFocus 57.32% 67% 60% 33% 38% 33% 71% 100% 33% 67% 60% 50% 33% 60% 33% 100% 100% 75%
5 John Halpin FOX 57.32% 33% 40% 67% 63% 17% 71% 67% 33% 67% 40% 75% 100% 40% 33% 100% 60% 75%
6 Ron Jaworski ESPN 57.32% 50% 40% 83% 75% 83% 29% 33% 33% 0% 80% 75% 50% 80% 17% 100% 60% 75%
7 Ty Schalter Bleacher Report 57.32% 67% 80% 50% 75% 50% 43% 33% 67% 67% 60% 75% 33% 80% 17% 0% 40% 75%
8 Pete O'Brien USA Today 57.32% 67% 40% 83% 38% 33% 43% 33% 33% 33% 60% 100% 67% 80% 50% 100% 60% 50%
9 Chris Law NFL 56.10% 83% 60% 33% 75% 50% 57% 33% 33% 33% 60% 50% 17% 80% 50% 100% 40% 75%
10 Kevin Patra NFL 56.10% 67% 60% 33% 25% 67% 71% 33% 33% 33% 80% 75% 100% 40% 33% 0% 80% 50%
11 Brad Gagnon Bleacher Report 54.88% 83% 60% 67% 13% 17% 43% 33% 0% 33% 100% 75% 67% 100% 33% 100% 20% 100%
12 Simon Samano USA Today 54.88% 50% 40% 50% 50% 33% 43% 67% 33% 0% 60% 25% 100% 60% 67% 100% 80% 75%
13 John Breech CBS 54.88% 50% 80% 50% 25% 67% 43% 67% 33% 33% 60% 100% 50% 40% 33% 100% 80% 75%
14 Chris Wesseling NFL 54.88% 83% 20% 67% 50% 33% 57% 67% 33% 67% 20% 75% 67% 40% 67% 100% 40% 75%
15 K.C. Joyner ESPN 53.66% 67% 60% 50% 25% 67% 43% 67% 0% 100% 40% 75% 33% 60% 67% 0% 20% 100%
16 Dave Damashek NFL 53.66% 67% 60% 33% 38% 50% 43% 33% 33% 67% 100% 50% 50% 60% 67% 0% 80% 25%
17 Andrea Hangst Bleacher Report 53.66% 50% 40% 67% 50% 50% 43% 67% 33% 100% 80% 75% 17% 80% 50% 0% 40% 25%
18 Jamey Eisenberg CBS 52.44% 67% 60% 83% 25% 33% 43% 67% 33% 67% 20% 50% 50% 40% 33% 100% 60% 100%
19 Warren Sapp NFL 52.44% 50% 20% 50% 38% 67% 43% 33% 33% 33% 40% 100% 50% 80% 33% 100% 60% 75%
20 Chris Hansen Bleacher Report 52.44% 67% 60% 100% 13% 33% 14% 67% 33% 33% 80% 100% 17% 60% 67% 0% 60% 75%
21 Nathan Jahnke ProFootballFocus 52.44% 50% 80% 50% 38% 17% 43% 33% 33% 100% 0% 100% 50% 80% 67% 100% 20% 75%
22 Rick Drummond ProFootballFocus 52.44% 17% 40% 67% 63% 50% 57% 33% 33% 33% 60% 75% 67% 20% 50% 0% 100% 50%
23 Chris Mortensen ESPN 52.44% 67% 60% 67% 50% 17% 29% 0% 33% 67% 60% 75% 67% 60% 33% 100% 60% 50%
24 Merill Hoge ESPN 52.44% 50% 60% 50% 50% 67% 57% 67% 33% 33% 60% 50% 67% 20% 33% 100% 40% 50%
25 Gordon McGuinness ProFootballFocus 51.22% 17% 60% 33% 25% 67% 57% 67% 33% 33% 40% 50% 67% 60% 83% 0% 40% 75%
26 Sam Monson ProFootballFocus 51.22% 33% 80% 33% 63% 33% 43% 33% 33% 67% 40% 50% 50% 60% 67% 100% 40% 50%
27 Black Tie NFL 51.22% 83% 60% 0% 63% 50% 71% 67% 33% 67% 80% 50% 33% 40% 33% 100% 20% 50%
28 Matt Miller Bleacher Report 51.22% 100% 40% 50% 63% 50% 43% 67% 0% 33% 40% 50% 67% 40% 50% 0% 60% 25%
29 Ryan Fowler FOX 50.00% 83% 60% 17% 25% 50% 71% 0% 0% 67% 60% 50% 50% 40% 33% 0% 80% 100%
30 Mark Schlereth ESPN 50.00% 50% 40% 50% 50% 50% 71% 67% 33% 33% 60% 50% 50% 20% 17% 0% 40% 100%
31 Whatifsports FOX 50.00% 50% 20% 50% 25% 50% 71% 100% 33% 33% 60% 75% 33% 60% 17% 0% 80% 75%
32 Accuscore Accuscore 50.00% 50% 20% 33% 38% 50% 43% 33% 33% 67% 60% 25% 50% 80% 67% 100% 60% 75%
33 Adam Schefter ESPN 50.00% 67% 60% 33% 25% 17% 43% 33% 33% 33% 60% 50% 50% 60% 67% 100% 60% 75%
34 Steve Mariucci NFL 50.00% 50% 40% 17% 13% 50% 43% 67% 33% 67% 80% 75% 50% 20% 67% 100% 60% 75%
35 Mike Ditka ESPN 50.00% 33% 40% 67% 50% 33% 43% 67% 33% 33% 40% 75% 50% 20% 67% 100% 40% 75%
36 Mike Florio PFT 50.00% 67% 40% 67% 75% 33% 14% 33% 33% 33% 80% 50% 67% 0% 50% 100% 20% 75%
37 Frank Schwab Yahoo 50.00% 33% 40% 50% 50% 33% 71% 67% 33% 67% 60% 50% 33% 40% 67% 0% 20% 75%
38 Michael David Smith PFT 50.00% 67% 40% 67% 38% 50% 57% 0% 0% 67% 40% 75% 33% 80% 50% 0% 60% 50%
39 Ryan Wilson CBS 50.00% 83% 60% 67% 50% 50% 43% 67% 33% 33% 100% 50% 17% 20% 17% 0% 60% 50%
40 Michael Silver NFL 50.00% 67% 80% 50% 38% 50% 43% 67% 33% 0% 40% 50% 33% 60% 50% 100% 40% 50%
41 Seth Wickersham ESPN 50.00% 33% 20% 50% 63% 50% 57% 33% 67% 67% 60% 50% 33% 60% 50% 0% 40% 50%
42 Nate Davis USA Today 50.00% 67% 80% 67% 25% 17% 29% 67% 33% 67% 80% 75% 67% 40% 33% 0% 40% 50%
43 Cris Carter ESPN 50.00% 67% 60% 50% 25% 50% 29% 33% 33% 0% 40% 100% 50% 80% 50% 100% 60% 25%
44 Chris Brockman NFL 50.00% 33% 80% 83% 38% 50% 43% 67% 0% 67% 40% 50% 67% 40% 33% 0% 60% 25%
45 Dave Richard CBS 48.78% 33% 60% 33% 25% 50% 14% 33% 33% 67% 60% 100% 67% 80% 0% 100% 40% 100%
46 Dan Hanzus NFL 48.78% 33% 100% 50% 13% 67% 43% 0% 0% 67% 60% 50% 50% 20% 67% 100% 40% 75%
47 Rich Eisen NFL 48.78% 50% 80% 50% 25% 50% 43% 0% 33% 33% 60% 50% 50% 60% 50% 100% 20% 75%
48 Heath Evans NFL 48.78% 50% 20% 33% 13% 67% 43% 67% 0% 33% 80% 75% 67% 40% 33% 0% 100% 50%
49 Adam Meyer FOX 47.56% 33% 20% 50% 38% 33% 71% 100% 33% 0% 40% 25% 67% 40% 33% 0% 80% 75%
50 Don Banks Sports Illustrated 47.56% 50% 80% 67% 25% 50% 43% 33% 33% 33% 20% 50% 33% 40% 67% 0% 40% 75%
51 Tom Pelissero USA Today 47.56% 67% 60% 17% 38% 67% 29% 0% 33% 33% 20% 75% 33% 60% 83% 100% 20% 75%
52 Pete Prisco CBS 47.56% 33% 40% 50% 25% 50% 29% 67% 33% 33% 60% 75% 67% 40% 50% 100% 40% 50%
53 Mike Freeman Bleacher Report 47.56% 50% 40% 100% 50% 17% 29% 100% 33% 33% 40% 75% 33% 40% 17% 100% 40% 50%
54 Erik Frenz Bleacher Report 47.56% 50% 40% 83% 25% 50% 43% 33% 0% 0% 40% 50% 83% 80% 33% 0% 40% 50%
55 Matt Bowen Bleacher Report 47.56% 33% 60% 50% 25% 33% 71% 100% 33% 67% 40% 75% 50% 40% 17% 0% 40% 50%
56 Jim Corbett USA Today 47.56% 50% 20% 17% 25% 50% 57% 33% 33% 67% 80% 100% 50% 60% 50% 0% 40% 25%
57 Elliot Harrison NFL 46.34% 67% 0% 50% 25% 33% 43% 67% 0% 67% 40% 100% 50% 0% 67% 100% 40% 100%
58 Marshall Faulk NFL 46.34% 50% 40% 33% 25% 67% 43% 33% 33% 33% 60% 100% 67% 20% 0% 0% 80% 75%
59 Tom Jackson ESPN 46.34% 33% 80% 50% 13% 17% 29% 100% 0% 67% 60% 100% 33% 60% 17% 0% 60% 75%
60 Marc Sessler NFL 46.34% 50% 40% 67% 25% 50% 29% 67% 0% 67% 40% 75% 33% 20% 83% 0% 40% 75%
61 Ben Stockwell ProFootballFocus 46.34% 50% 20% 33% 63% 33% 57% 67% 33% 67% 40% 50% 33% 60% 33% 0% 40% 75%
62 Matt Smith NFL 46.34% 50% 60% 33% 38% 33% 57% 100% 67% 67% 80% 0% 50% 20% 50% 0% 0% 75%
63 Josh Katzowitz CBS 46.34% 33% 40% 83% 13% 50% 29% 67% 33% 67% 80% 50% 17% 40% 17% 0% 100% 50%
64 Lindsay H. Jones USA Today 46.34% 17% 20% 67% 63% 50% 57% 33% 33% 0% 60% 50% 33% 60% 33% 100% 40% 50%
65 Zach Kruse Bleacher Report 46.34% 33% 40% 33% 50% 33% 57% 100% 67% 33% 20% 75% 17% 60% 33% 100% 40% 50%
66 Neil Hornsby ProFootballFocus 46.34% 50% 20% 33% 38% 50% 57% 0% 67% 33% 60% 75% 50% 20% 83% 0% 40% 50%
67 Tyson Langland Bleacher Report 46.34% 50% 60% 33% 25% 17% 43% 33% 33% 33% 80% 75% 50% 80% 50% 0% 20% 50%
68 Eric Allen ESPN 45.12% 83% 20% 33% 13% 33% 29% 33% 67% 33% 40% 50% 50% 80% 33% 100% 80% 50%
69 Jarrett Bell USA Today 45.12% 33% 0% 67% 50% 50% 14% 67% 67% 0% 80% 25% 67% 60% 33% 0% 60% 50%
70 Will Brinson CBS 43.90% 17% 60% 67% 63% 0% 57% 33% 0% 33% 80% 50% 50% 20% 0% 100% 40% 75%
71 Steve Palazzolo ProFootballFocus 43.90% 33% 20% 17% 50% 17% 57% 67% 67% 33% 40% 25% 50% 40% 67% 0% 40% 75%
72 Keyshawn Johnson ESPN 43.90% 33% 40% 50% 38% 17% 29% 67% 33% 0% 60% 100% 50% 20% 50% 0% 40% 75%
73 Steve Wyche NFL 43.90% 33% 60% 50% 38% 0% 29% 100% 0% 67% 20% 75% 67% 20% 50% 0% 60% 50%
74 Michael Schottey Bleacher Report 43.90% 17% 20% 67% 75% 17% 57% 0% 67% 67% 40% 50% 33% 20% 50% 0% 60% 50%
75 Mike Golic ESPN 42.68% 33% 60% 33% 50% 67% 43% 67% 33% 0% 20% 75% 17% 20% 33% 0% 40% 100%
76 Kurt Warner NFL 42.68% 50% 20% 17% 38% 50% 43% 0% 33% 33% 40% 50% 33% 60% 33% 100% 80% 75%
77 Sterling Sharpe NFL 42.68% 67% 20% 33% 25% 17% 57% 67% 33% 100% 20% 75% 17% 40% 17% 100% 60% 50%
78 Jason La Canfora CBS 42.68% 17% 20% 50% 50% 67% 43% 33% 67% 33% 60% 75% 33% 20% 17% 0% 40% 50%
79 NFL FAN PICKS NFL 42.68% 67% 0% 17% 50% 50% 43% 33% 33% 33% 40% 50% 33% 80% 33% 0% 80% 25%
80 Henry Hodgson NFL 42.68% 50% 20% 67% 63% 50% 29% 0% 0% 0% 60% 75% 33% 40% 33% 100% 40% 25%
81 Brian Baldinger NFL 42.68% 0% 60% 67% 38% 33% 57% 33% 33% 33% 60% 75% 50% 0% 67% 0% 40% 0%
82 Michael Irvin NFL 41.46% 33% 60% 50% 25% 17% 43% 33% 0% 67% 40% 50% 33% 40% 33% 100% 60% 50%
83 Vinnie Iyer Sporting News 41.46% 33% 40% 17% 38% 17% 0% 0% 67% 33% 60% 100% 17% 80% 67% 100% 40% 50%
84 Adam Rank NFL 41.46% 67% 40% 50% 50% 50% 29% 33% 0% 0% 60% 50% 33% 20% 50% 0% 40% 50%
85 Pickwatch  Pickwatch 41.46% 33% 40% 17% 63% 50% 57% 0% 0% 100% 60% 25% 33% 60% 33% 100% 20% 25%
86 Michael Fabiano NFL 40.24% 33% 60% 33% 50% 0% 57% 33% 33% 67% 20% 25% 17% 60% 17% 0% 60% 75%
87 Melissa Stark NFL 40.24% 17% 20% 17% 63% 67% 29% 67% 33% 67% 20% 75% 33% 60% 33% 0% 0% 50%
88 Knox Bardeen Bleacher Report 39.02% 67% 20% 33% 38% 33% 43% 67% 33% 33% 20% 75% 0% 20% 33% 100% 40% 75%
89 Pick ‘em ESPN 39.02% 67% 20% 17% 38% 17% 43% 67% 33% 33% 40% 50% 17% 60% 33% 0% 80% 25%
90 Yahoo Users Yahoo 37.80% 67% 0% 17% 50% 17% 43% 33% 33% 33% 20% 50% 17% 80% 33% 0% 80% 25%
91 Coin Toss  None 36.59% 17% 0% 67% 25% 33% 29% 33% 33% 0% 60% 50% 67% 40% 17% 0% 60% 50%
92 Shaun O'Hara NFL 34.15% 17% 0% 50% 25% 67% 43% 67% 33% 33% 40% 100% 0% 40% 17% 0% 40% 0%
93 Les Carpenter Yahoo 32.93% 83% 40% 50% 50% 17% 14% 33% 67% 33% 20% 50% 17% 60% 0% 0% 0% 0%



12 comments:

  1. Great addition to the site, Shaun. One question, though: why isn't Don Banks showing up in this particular list? I would assume that his close game pick % is above 24% given that he's a top picker overall.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thanks Anonymous man! As you can see from this ( http://pickwatch.nflpickwatch.com/2013/10/pickwatch-readme-v231.html ) I have only added Don & co. yesterday. I have their data, however incorporating it into this was not a priority this week. It will be there from next week and include all of their week 1-5 picks. Hope that helps

    Shaun

    ReplyDelete
  3. First of all, thanks for all the work you're doing to bring this together. I certainly appreciate it.
    Comment: I would think that if you scrapped the poorest pickers from the Clutch Pickers List (maybe the bottom 50) we might get a more realistic picture of the true clutch pickers (ones that pick the close games accurately from a pool of pickers that have good odds of picking winners across the board). Just a thought. After all, who really cares about the "consunsus" of a bunch of poor pickers?
    Thanks again.

    ReplyDelete
  4. What is the % that puts something into a clutch pick 70% or so?

    ReplyDelete
  5. Sean - When do Clutch Pickers get updated?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SEAN?! Come on man... I'll be doing them in the next half hour, just updating the divisional stats. P.S. you're still top...

      Delete
    2. Oops. Thanks Shaun!

      Delete
  6. It would be cool if you listed the # of Clutch Games there are per week at the top of the column like you do with the network standings....True for all the different sheets you have I guess.
    Also, I know we can find out who won what game....course we gotta look it up...maybe the names of the winning team on the pick sheets could be italicized or bolded or something?

    FANtastic site by BTW.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks Anonymous (you leave an awful lot of comments on this blog by the way, sometimes I even catch you talking to yourself...)

      I do have the data for clutch picks compiled in a way that could SORT OF be put on the site, however it would be a huge formatting problem as it is such a complex document. I agree though, that what I can do is list the number of clutch games for each week and perhaps create a list of 50-75% games for each week so you guys know what the stats are based on.

      Hope that helps. Sometimes we just have to compromise, but next season the plan is that we'll be moving off blogger and into our own site that will allow far more functionality in that regard.

      Delete
  7. well the only reason I talk to myself is (more often than not) because I am the only person that will listen

    ReplyDelete
  8. How do get 33% of 5 close games correct?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. By magic... or alternatively by not updating your formulae correctly... Fixed!

      Delete

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